Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science

Abstract Purpose: This article focuses on whether there is a chance to win a World Trade Organization (WTO) trade dispute at the consultation stage. The study suggests an approach to resolving trade disputes on a bilateral level before involving formal WTO resolution procedures. Design/methodology/approach: The model describes the determinants of the probability of winning a trade dispute. The econometric model estimates two different groups of factors available during the consultation period - macroeconomic factors and the institutional features of the trade dispute, such as the number of third parties. The data includes WTO trade disputes from 1995 to 2014. Findings: The suggested model predicts the result of trade disputes with a probability of 76.64%. The research proves that institutional factors such as the number of third parties and the subject of the trade dispute influence the probability of winning. Practical implications: The results of the study help predict the probability of winning a trade dispute at the consultation stage so that countries can decide whether to pursue a trade dispute. Originality/value: The research presents several new hypotheses on the results of trade disputes. The authors show that the higher the number of countries involved, the higher the chance of the complainant winning and that if major parties such as the US or the European Union (EU) are involved as third parties, the chance of the complainant winning increases.

Abstract Purpose: The study aims to investigate the nexus between total factor productivity and tourism growth in Latin American countries for time series data from 1995 to 2017. Design/methodology/approach: Using the extension of the Granger noncausality test in the nonlinear time-varying of Ajmi et al. (2015), the study points out the interconnectedness between the variables during the period. Findings: The study found nonlinear causality between the variables. Particularly, studying the conclusions for the time-varying Granger causality fashion, it can be noticed that the one-way causality from total factor productivity to tourism growth is obtained for Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Uruguay and Venezuela, while the vice versa is confirmed for Chile, Ecuador and Nicaragua. Lastly, the study dissected the plots of the curve causality. Practical implications: In view of the results, some crucial policy implications could be suggested, such as, under certain circumstances and as an exceptional case, the use of policy instruments such as targeted investment, marketing and the support of tourism organizations focused on driving a tourism-led-based productivity and/or tourism programs and projects. Originality/value: The current work is distinguished from the existing body of understanding in several substantial directions. This work explores, for the first time, the linkages between the total factor productivity index and tourism growth for Latin American countries. No single attempt has been known to investigate this interaction by using nonlinear causality, and this study determines the shape of the curve between the total factor productivity index and tourism growth for each country.

Abstract Purpose: This study aims to provide preliminary information to the investor by determining which indices co-movement, with the data mining method. Design/methodology/approach: In this context, data sets containing daily opening and closing prices between 2001 and 2019 have been created for 11 stock market indexes in the world. The association rule algorithm, one of the data mining techniques, is used in the analysis of the data. Findings: It is observed that the US stock market indices take part in the highest confidence levels between association rules. The XU100 stock index co-movement with both the European stock market indices and the US stock indices. In addition, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) (Hong Kong) takes part in the association rules of all stock market indices. Originality/value: The important issue for data sets is that the opening/closing values of the same day or the previous day are taken into account according to the open or closed status of other stock market indices by taking the opening time of the stock exchange index to be created. Therefore, data sets are arranged for each stock market index, separately. A>s a result of this data set arranging process, it is possible to find out co-movements of the stock market indexes. It is proof that the world stock indices have co-movement, and this continues as a cycle.

Abstract Purpose: The last decades have experienced increasingly integrated global political and economic dynamics ranging especially from the influence of exchange rates and trade amid other sources of uncertainties. The purpose of this study is to examine the exchange rate dynamics of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) and the Republic of Turkey. Design/methodology/approach: Given this perceived global dynamics, the current study examined the BRICS countries and the Republic of Turkey's exchange rate dynamics by using the United States (US) monthly dollar exchange rate data between January 2002 and August 2019. The price bubble which is expressed as exceeding the real value of assets' prices which is observably caused by speculative movements is investigated by using the Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) approaches. Findings: Accordingly, the GSADF test results opined that there are price bubbles in the dollar exchange rate of other countries except for the United States Dollar (USD)/Indian Rupee (INR) exchange rate. As the related countries are classified as developing countries in terms of their structure, they are also expectedly the subject of speculative exchange rate movements. Speculative movements in exchange rates may cause serious problems in national economies. Originality/value: Thus, the current study provides a policy framework to the BRICS countries and the Republic of Turkey.

Abstract Purpose: The study examines the impact of real exchange rates and asymmetric real exchange rates on real stock prices in Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Korea, Japan, the United Kingdom (UK), Germany, Hong Kong and Indonesia. Design/methodology/approach: This study uses the asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach. Findings: The asymmetric ARDL approach shows more economic variables are found to be statistically significant than the ARDL approach. The asymmetric real exchange rate is mostly found to have a significant impact on the real stock price. Moreover, real output and real interest rates are found to have a significant impact on the real stock price. The Asian financial crisis (1997-1998) and the global financial crisis (2008-2009) are found to have a significant impact on the real stock price in some economies. Research limitations/implications: Economic variables are important in the determination of stock prices. Originality/value: It is important to examine the impact of asymmetric real exchange rate on the real stock price as the depreciation of real exchange rate could have different impacts than the appreciation of real exchange rate on the real stock price. The previous studies in the literature mostly found the significant impact of nominal exchange rate on the nominal stock price.