Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science

Abstract Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the effectiveness of the risk management system in the European context, especially with regard to the risk management committee, the uncertainty of the environment and company performance. In summary, it evaluates European companies listed on the stock exchange in France, Germany and the United Kingdom to determine how risk management systems influence financial companies’ performance. Design/methodology/approach To study the effectiveness of risk management systems and their influence on performance, the large companies selected in our sample are fairly representative of the European market, according to the Dutch indices of each country (SBF 120 in France, HDAX 110 in Germany and FTSE 100 in United Kingdom).The empirical evidence is based on an international quantitative analysis, using a data set involving 320 companies listed on the stock exchange over a ten-year period from 2005 to 2014. Findings The results indicate that the establishment of a risk management and control system by a company positively influences its management, and its performance level and value creation also improve. The results of this study demonstrate a significant strengthening of the role of the risk management committee in the three countries. The surveillance function is reinforced, and in particular, the internal control system is accentuated. Research limitations/implications This study has some limitations that can form leads for future research. One of these limitations is the sample size. The authors have represented the European context by three countries that certainly constitute great European powers, but have regulations different from other countries. The company size is also a possible research element. Indeed, risk management system varies between large, small and medium-sized enterprises, so it is important to study each type of company well. Originality/value This study identifies the risk management committee as a mechanism of control that is highly important in the company, and it proposes an international framework that comparatively and empirically evaluates how the risk management system used in large European companies can improve their financial performance.

Abstract Purpose This paper tests the accuracies of the models that predict the Value-at-Risk (VaR) for the Market Integrated Latin America (MILA) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) emerging stock markets during crisis periods. Design/methodology/approach Many VaR estimation models have been presented in the literature. In this paper, the VaR is estimated using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, EGARCH and GJR-GARCH models under normal, skewed-normal, Student-t and skewed-Student-t distributional assumptions and compared with the predictive performance of the Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk (CaViaR) considering the four alternative specifications proposed by Engle and Manganelli (2004). Findings The results support the robustness of the CaViaR model in out-sample VaR forecasting for the MILA and ASEAN-5 emerging stock markets in crisis periods. This evidence is based on the results of the backtesting approach that analyzed the predictive performance of the models according to their accuracy. Originality/value An important issue in market risk is the inaccurate estimation of risk since different VaR models lead to different risk measures, which means that there is not yet an accepted method for all situations and markets. In particular, quantifying and forecasting the risk for the MILA and ASEAN-5 stock markets is crucial for evaluating global market risk since the MILA is the biggest stock exchange in Latin America and the ASEAN region accounted for 11% of the total global foreign direct investment inflows in 2014. Furthermore, according to the Asian Development Bank, this region is projected to average 7% annual growth by 2025.

Abstract Purpose: This article examines whether deviations from fundamental value or closed-end country fund’s discounts or premiums forecast future share price returns or net asset returns. Design/methodology/approach: The main empirical (econometric) tool is a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The authors model share price returns and net asset returns as a function of their lagged values, the discounts or premiums, and a control variable for local market returns. The authors also conduct Dickey Fuller and Granger causality tests as well as impulse response functions. Findings: It was found that deviations from fundamental value do predict share price returns. This predictability is contrary to weak-form market efficiency. Premiums or discounts predict net asset returns but weakly. Originality/value: The findings point to the idea that the closed-end fund market is somewhat predictable and inefficient (in its weak form) since the market appears to be able to anticipate a fund’s future returns using information contained in the premiums (or discounts). In particular, the market has the ability to anticipate future behaviour because growing premiums forecast declining share price returns for one or two periods ahead.

Abstract Purpose: The authors aim to examine the mean and volatility linkages between the gold market and the Latin American equity markets in the entire sample period and two crises periods, namely the US financial crisis and the Chinese crash. Design/methodology/approach: To examine the return and volatility spillovers, the authors employ VARBEKK-GARCH model on the daily data of four emerging Latin American equity markets which include Peru, Chile, Brazil and Mexico, which ranges from January 2000 to June 2018. Findings: The results show that the return transmissions vary across the stock markets and the crises periods. The volatility transmission is found to be bidirectional between the gold and stock markets of Brazil and Chile during the US financial crisis. Furthermore, the volatility spillover is unidirectional from Brazil to gold and from gold to Peru stock market during the Chinese crash. We also calculate the optimal weights hedge ratios for gold and stock portfolio. The result suggests that portfolio managers need to increase the weight of gold for the equity portfolios of Peru and Mexico during the US financial crisis. Furthermore, during the Chinese crisis, investors may raise the investment in gold for the equity portfolios of Brazil and Chile. Finally, the cheapest hedging strategy is CHIL/GOLD during the US financial crisis, whereas MEXI/GOLD during the Chinese crash. Practical implications: These findings have useful insights for portfolio diversification, asset pricing and risk management. Originality/value: The study’s outcome provides policymakers and investors with in-depth insights regarding hedging, risk management and portfolio management.

Abstract Purpose: Fama-French model (FFM) has been successful in helping to predict the financial markets, but investors have been interested in creating more sophisticated models to better predict the performance of the stock market. The objective of the extended version is to create a more robust econometric model to better predict the performance of the Mexican Stock Market. Design/methodology/approach: The study divides the Mexican Stock Market into six different portfolios. The criteria to build those portfolios are the same one used in Fama-French (1992). The study comprises 78 stocks listed in the Mexican Stock Market that are analyzed monthly during 1997-2018. The study analyzes the period before and after the 2008-2009 financial crisis to identify whether there are important changes. The estimation applies the traditional and an extended version of the FFM that include macroeconomic variables such as country risk, economic activity, inflation rate, and exchange rate and some financial variables recommended in the literature. Findings: Results indicate that classic FFM variables are statistically significant in most cases, but relevant macroeconomic variables such as the interest rate, exchange rate and country risk stand out for being weakly relevant in most of the portfolios. However, it is noticed that some of these macroeconomic variables became relevant for different portfolios only after the 2008-2009 crisis, especially in portfolios which include small market capitalization firms. Research limitations/implications: The study includes the stocks listed in the Mexican Stock Market. One limitation is the small number of stocks available, which reduces the possibility of creating well diversified portfolios. This study includes 78 stocks. The stocks removed from the sample are from firms that were not listed during six consecutive months or whose market capitalization did not change in the same period. Outlier data were removed from the sample to capture in better way the general performance of the stock market. Practical implications: The objective of the extended version is to create a more robust econometric model than the traditional model. It is expected that such estimations can be helpful to investors to make better decisions when they try to predict performance in the stock market. Social implications: An extended version of the FFM can be helpful to investors to make better decisions when they try to predict performance in the stock market. Originality/value: To the best of our knowledge there are no more studies in the literature of the Mexican financial market that apply the same methodology.